Kamis, 04 September 2014

European Central Bank Cuts Rate Further, Paving Way for More Drastic Measures

By JACK EWING September 4, 2014

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank cut its main interest rate to a whisker above zero on Thursday, setting the stage for more powerful but riskier measures to prevent the faltering eurozone economy from slipping back into recession.

The surprise cut in the rate at which it issues short-term loans to banks to 0.05 percent from 0.15 percent marks a record. The central bank also increased the fee it imposes on banks to store money at the E.C.B., to 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent. The so-called negative deposit rate, first imposed in June, has already pushed some market interest rates below zero.

With its action on Thursday, the central bank has effectively emptied the standard monetary policy toolbox. If the eurozone economy continues to slow, the next step would almost inevitably be a form of quantitative easing — large-scale asset purchases to pump money into the financial system.

Stocks rose Thursday amid speculation that the E.C.B. would later announce plans to buy bundles of bank loans known as asset-backed securities, in an effort to stimulate lending.

Mario Draghi, chief of the European Central Bank.

Many economists have said the central bank should have begun quantitative easing, similar to the bond-buying program used by the United States, months ago to avert the threat of deflation, a downward spiral of prices that can lead to high unemployment. Annual inflation in the eurozone was 0.3 percent in August, according to an official estimate, well below the central bank's target of about 2 percent.

"There is currently a major problem of too-low inflation in the eurozone," said Zsolt Darvas, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a research organization in Brussels. "The E.C.B. should have acted earlier and more forcefully."

A few analysts had predicted a rate cut on Thursday, but most had expected the central bank to refrain from new stimulus measures until it had a chance to gauge the success of a program designed to restart the flow of credit to troubled countries like Italy and Spain.

The program, which begins this month, allows commercial banks in the eurozone to draw cheap four-year loans from the central bank if they issue credit to businesses and households.

The rate cut is probably too small to have much effect on market interest rates and may be designed instead to make the lending program more attractive to banks. The interest on the four-year loans from the central bank is the same as the benchmark rate plus 0.1 of a percentage point. With the rate cut Thursday, the interest on the loans will fall to 0.15 percent.

The central bank last cut the main interest rate in June, to 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent. It also began imposing a 0.1 percent penalty on money that commercial banks park at the central bank. That so-called negative interest rate — now pushed to 0.2 percent — has helped push down market interest rates on some government bonds and money markets below zero, but the cheap money has not yet found its way to struggling businesses in countries like Italy and Portugal.

The central bank is now pinning its hopes on the lending program. The E.C.B. will monitor whether banks have used the money to increase loans to businesses or households. If the central bank finds that they have not, banks will be required to repay the money early.

Analysts said it was unlikely that the central bank would begin quantitative easing until it knew how many banks had taken take advantage of the lending program. It would be impossible to calibrate asset purchases without knowing how much money the existing measures were injecting into credit markets.

Quantitative easing would be more difficult and risky in Europe, because of the region's fragmented bond market. In addition, many people in countries like Germany consider purchases of government bonds to be a violation of the E.C.B.'s charter.

Some bankers have said they doubt that the lending program will improve the flow of credit. One of the reasons that lending in the eurozone has remained subdued is that many borrowers are considered simply too risky.

"The question is whether banks are willing to lend at all to those people," said Richard Barwell a senior economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.


source : http://rss.nytimes.com/c/34625/f/640316/s/3e23d0ad/sc/24/l/0L0Snytimes0N0C20A140C0A90C0A50Cbusiness0Cinternational0Cecb0Ecuts0Einterest0Erate0Efurther0Epaving0Eway0Efor0Emore0Edrastic0Emeasures0Bhtml0Dpartner0Frss0Gemc0Frss/story01.htm

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