Jumat, 19 September 2014

DealBook: Pound and U.K. Stock Futures Rise on Scottish ‘No’ Vote

LONDON — As Scotland rejected independence, the pound gained strength and stocks in Britain opened higher on Friday, reflecting relief that the country would not face a tumultuous breakup and a prolonged period of uncertainty.

The British currency rose about 0.4 percent to $1.6456 at 7:22 a.m. in London, after reaching $1.6525, the strongest level in more than two weeks.

Stocks showed early gains in markets across Europe, lifted by the results of the Scottish referendum and after a record close on Thursday of the Dow Jones industrial average. The dollar gained slightly against the euro and the yen.

Stocks in London opened about 0.7 percent higher. The Nikkei index was up about 1.6 percent in Tokyo and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong edged up 0.9 percent.

The Royal Bank of Scotland, which said last week it would shift its registered office to England in the event of a Scottish breakaway, said Friday morning that it had abandoned that plan. Its shares spiked more than 4 percent in early trading on Friday.

R.B.S. and other banks with large Scottish operations, including the Lloyds Banking Group, had said that, in the event of a "yes" vote, they would incorporate in London to continue to enjoy the backing of the Bank of England as a lender of last resort and to be eligible for deposit guarantees backed by the British government for their customers.

"That contingency plan is no longer required," R.B.S. said in a statement. "Following the result it is business as usual for all our customers across the U.K. and R.B.S."

The results announced in Scotland early Friday showed a decisive 55 percent of voters against independence to 45 percent in favor.

The pound had been rising against the dollar in the days leading up to the vote, as the prospect of Scotland pulling away from the 307-year old union, which had looked more likely earlier in the month, receded.

On Sept. 7, the pound fell sharply after one poll showed the independence camp pulling ahead. The sell-off reflected fears of a political breakup, uncertainty over what currency Scotland would use if it broke away and questions about what independence would mean for Britain's standing in the European Union.

Prime Minister David Cameron has called for a referendum on European Union membership by 2017, and many economists believed that a Scottish vote for independence would have fueled support for an exit.

But as Scotland looked more likely to stay this week, the pound gained against the dollar. On Thursday, the stock market also ended the day up, though it lagged its European peers.

Many economists on Friday morning were quick to note that the respite could be short. The vote exposed contentious issues including what role Scotland should have in the Britain, and divisions in the Conservative Party, after Mr. Cameron and George Osborne, the chancellor of the Exchequer, promised additional powers for Scotland if it voted no, to the irritation of other party members.

"The U.K. has been changed forever by this referendum," said Rob Wood, an economist at Berenberg Bank in London. "The majority of Scots have voted to remain in the U.K., but not under the old status quo."

"The risk of huge disruption from Scottish independence is gone. Not for good, given the still high support for a No in the polls, but for a considerable time," Mr. Wood said.

Harry Adams, a managing director at Argentex, a currency advisory firm, said that the pound's gains would be limited after the recent rally. "On a 'no' vote the gains will be relatively limited," he said late Thursday.
"By 8 to 9 a.m. we are back to normal and then looking at interest rate rises, how aggressive the bank of England will be on their interest rate rise the employment report."

Alex Salmond, first minister of Scotland, had said he wanted a currency union with the remaining United Kingdom, but the leaders of Britain's three leading political parties and the governor of the Bank of England had rejected the idea.

If Scotland had tried to build its own currency, it would have been forced to accumulate the reserves to back it, and Mark J. Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, noted that those reserves would have to be quite high to reflect Scotland's strong banking industry.

There were also fears about the exposure of banks to Scottish loans and deposit flight, with economists saying there would be dire consequences for Scotland and the United Kingdom as a whole.

While politicians in Westminster and bankers in the City of London insisted that an independent Scotland would have great costs for both economies, and that financial service jobs would flee the country, others saw Scotland capable of going at it alone.

Frank McKirgan, who worked in investment banking for 25 years, most recently in 2007 as global head of equities at the Royal Bank of Scotland, said that the anti-independence campaign focused too heavily on the transition and not on the long-term opportunities for Scotland.​

"Five years after independence, I think there will be more people employed in financial services in Scotland than today," he said. "To say it will disappear is nonsense."


source : http://rss.nytimes.com/c/34625/f/640316/s/3e9cd7a0/sc/30/l/0Ldealbook0Bnytimes0N0C20A140C0A90C180Cpound0Erises0Eon0Eearly0Eresults0Eof0Escottish0Evote0C0Dpartner0Frss0Gemc0Frss/story01.htm

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