SINTRA, PORTUGAL — The president of the European Central Bank acknowledged on Monday that there is a risk that the euro zone could become caught in a downward spiral of falling prices, a "classic deflationary cycle" that would require large-scale purchases of bonds or other assets to reverse.
Mario Draghi, the central bank's president, stopped short of specifying what action the bank might take in response to such a risk when it meets on June 5. Expectations that the bank will do something are high following a flurry of statements in recent weeks by Mr. Draghi and by other members of the E.C.B.'s governing council indicating that they are prepared to take further steps to stimulate the struggling euro zone economy.
Mr. Draghi said that members of the governing council, many of whom are gathered here for a conference, are still debating what would be the right response to a combination of falling prices, tight bank credit, and uneven growth. All agree that the central bank must try to push inflation, currently at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, back toward the official target of just below 2 percent.
But Mr. Draghi also spoke in unusually direct language about the risk that the euro zone could sink into deflation, when expectations of falling prices cause people to delay purchases, which in turn undercuts corporate profits and makes businesses reluctant to hire. Deflation, which has afflicted Japan for years, is considered particularly pernicious because it is very difficult for policy makers to reverse.
"What we need to be particularly watchful for at the moment is the potential for a negative spiral to take hold between low inflation, falling inflation expectations and credit, in particular in stressed countries," Mr. Draghi said, according to a text of his remarks.
A "too prolonged" period of inflation below current expectations, Mr. Draghi said, "would call for a more expansionary stance, which would be the context for a broad-based asset purchase program."
Many economists have urged the central bank to emulate the United States Federal Reserve and buy large quantities of government bonds and other assets to pump money into the economy.
But most analysts do not expect the European Central Bank to begin an asset program when it meets next week. More likely, analysts say, would be a cut of the benchmark interest rate to 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent, coupled with a so-called negative deposit rate which would charge lenders for parking money at the central bank.
A negative deposit rate would tend to push down the value of the euro against the dollar and other currencies, because investors would earn little or no return on euros. In his speech on Monday, Mr. Draghi said that the increase in the euro's value against the dollar since 2011 had driven down the price of commodities such as fuel in euro terms, contributing to low inflation.
Mr. Draghi spoke on the first day of an economic policy conference here organized by the E.C.B. as a sort of counterpart to the annual symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyo., by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The participants in the conference, held at a golfing resort, are mainly other central bankers as well as prominent economists.
source : http://rss.nytimes.com/c/34625/f/640316/s/3ad4588f/sc/24/l/0L0Snytimes0N0C20A140C0A50C270Cbusiness0Cinternational0Cpresident0Eof0Eecb0Ewarns0Eof0Eeuro0Ezone0Edeflation0Bhtml0Dpartner0Frss0Gemc0Frss/story01.htm
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar