Senin, 04 Agustus 2014

DealBook: HSBC’s Profit Declines on Slowdown in Asia and Markets

LONDON – The British bank HSBC reported on Monday that its first-half profit declined 5 percent amid a slowdown in market activity and a decline in its Asian operations, which account for more than half its earnings.

HSBC, based in London, said its earnings fell to $9.75 billion from $10.3 billion in the first half of 2013. The year-earlier period included gains from moves undertaken as part of a three-year restructuring, among them an accounting gain from the reclassification of its stake in the Chinese lender Industrial Bank.

On an underlying basis, HSBC said pretax profit fell 4 percent, to $12.6 billion, from $13 billion in the first half of 2013. The bank's underlying profit included adjustments for the effect of foreign currency movements and acquisitions.

In Asia, HSBC's pretax profit fell 15 percent, to $7.89 billion. Asia accounted for about 64 percent of its pretax profit in the first half.

HSBC said its investment bank was affected by "low market volatility and client activity" in its markets business, but the bank increased its market share during the first half in debt and equity capital markets, mergers and acquisitions, and lending.

Increasing regulatory scrutiny and duplicative efforts by regulators around the world are eating into resources that would normally be focused on customers, Douglas Flint, the bank's chairman, said in a statement.

"Greater focus on conduct and financial crime risks at all levels of the firm globally is clearly the right response to past shortcomings," Mr. Flint said in a statement. "There is, however, an observable and growing danger of disproportionate risk aversion creeping into decision-making in our businesses as individuals, facing uncertainty as to what may be criticized with hindsight and perceiving a zero tolerance of error, seek to protect themselves and the firm from future censure."

The bank is facing a variety of issues, including a proposed "ring fencing" of HSBC's retail bank in Britain, stress tests on its assets by various financial regulators and investigations into potential manipulation of global benchmark interest rates and currency markets.

Sky News reported on Sunday that Mr. Flint wrote George Osborne, Britain's chancellor of the Exchequer, to ask that Britain delay ring fencing beyond 2019. Under ring fencing, HSBC and other British banks would separate their retail and small-business operations from riskier trading and investment banking activity in order to better weather future economic upheavals.

On a conference call with journalists on Monday, Mr. Flint declined to comment on "any private letters that I might have written," but said that ring fencing is coming at a time when regulators are contemplating a variety of structural changes across the finance industry.

"If the goal post is moved," Mr. Flint said on the call, "it will be another frustration and another unwarranted cost."

The cost of ring fencing is "climbing to a very substantial number," HSBC said, noting that it would be in the hundreds of millions of pounds a year over several years while it is being implemented.

Revenue fell 9 percent, to $31.2 billion. Net interest income — the measure of what a bank earns on its lending after deducting what it pays out on deposits and other liabilities — fell 2 percent, to $17.4 billion.

HSBC's operating expenses declined slightly, to $18.3 billion, while charges for poorly performing loans and other credit risks fell 41 percent, to $1.84 billion, from $3.12 billion in the period a year earlier.

Mr. Flint, the HSBC chairman, said the bank was facing "growing fatigue" and increased competition for its employees in the current regulatory environment.

"This is adding to cost pressures both from increased salaries as market rates increase, and from investment in training and systems support to improve productivity," Mr. Flint said. "This underscores the importance of finalizing the regulatory reform agenda in the near term."

The bank's common equity Tier 1 capital ratio, a measure of its ability to absorb losses, rose to 11.2 percent at the end of the first six months of 2014 from 10.8 percent at the end of 2013.

European banks are required to have a minimum common equity capital ratio of 4 percent this year under the so-called Basel III rules, but larger banks are required to maintain a much higher minimum, which is set by national regulators.

HSBC, one of the world's largest banks, operates in 74 countries and had assets of $2.75 trillion at the end of the first half of 2014.

Correction: August 4, 2014
An earlier version of this article misstated the charges HSBC took in the first half of 2014 for poorly performing loans and other credit risks. It was $1.84 billion, not $1.84 million.
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Minggu, 03 Agustus 2014

Nickelodeon’s Digital Generation

"Welcome to The Wayne" will run on the web and mobile. By EMILY STEEL August 3, 2014

Meet Olly Timbers. Olly, an orange-haired 10-year-old boy, says he likes "rum raisin ice cream, going on adventures, getting scratched just behind his elbow and also other kinds of ice cream."

He's the star of "Welcome to The Wayne," Nickelodeon's first original animated series created exclusively for the web and mobile. Making its debut on a redesigned Nick.com site and on the Nickelodeon app on Monday, the series follows Olly's adventures with a friend in their wacky apartment building.

After its start online, "Welcome to The Wayne" will be developed into a traditional television series.

The program is part of an overhaul at Viacom's 36-year-old children's network to discover, develop and disseminate shows for a new generation of "Rugrats" who barely distinguish among a television set, a laptop, a tablet and a mobile phone.

Nickelodeon hopes "Welcome to The Wayne" will match the popularity of Dora the Explorer, pictured, beloved by an earlier cohort of viewers.

Following their viewers' lead, Nickelodeon has started a number of initiatives that increasingly blur the lines among an ever-proliferating number of screens. "Welcome to The Wayne" is the first web-exclusive series produced by the network's new animated shorts program, which seeks to create a pipeline of fresh content for the web, mobile and, potentially, television. The network also is introducing a left-to-right scrolling Nick.com, featuring videos and games and designed for children to navigate the same way they swipe through mobile apps.

"These kids were born into digital TV land," said Cyma Zarghami, president of Viacom Inc.'s Nickelodeon Group.

As they respond to the rapid change in viewing habits, Nickelodeon and other children's television networks are seeking the right balance of programming for traditional and digital screens. At Nickelodeon, that means creating more programming than ever before across six outlets: the Nickelodeon, Nick Jr., Nicktoons and Teen Nick television networks, and Nick.com and the Nick app. The network is also starting a new Nick Jr. mobile app. While the next generation of viewers is the most connected in history, children today still watch nearly three and a half hours of traditional television a day. With most of the advertising and distribution revenues still tied to that medium, network executives have to be careful not to ignore it.

But waiting too long to shake up their models could be ruinous for the television groups, especially as Amazon, Netflix and other online outlets pour resources into acquiring and developing their own original children's series.

"We're in the business of reinvention," said Cyma Zarghami, president of Nickelodeon Group.

"We're in the business of reinvention," Ms. Zarghami said.

The risks of inaction are all too real at Nickelodeon, where a ratings crisis rattled the network about three years ago.

Audience ratings plunged, as a generation of viewers outgrew Nickelodeon and loyal viewers left the network. Competition from other television and digital outlets exploded. While the network had a lineup of popular programs with "SpongeBob SquarePants," "iCarly," "Dora the Explorer" and "Dora and Friends: Into the City!," it needed new hits.

"We didn't see it coming, which is one of the scariest things that can happen," Ms. Zarghami said.

Some in the media business worried that the troubles at Nickelodeon were a warning sign that today's digitally wired children would never grow into traditional television watchers.

"There were a lot of people who legitimately believed that it was over for kids' television — Nick in particular and TV more broadly," said Brian Wieser, a media analyst with Pivotal Research. "But no good evidence suggests that there was a meaningful decline in total kids' consumption of television."

Despite the concerns, children today are watching more television on a traditional television set than they did five years ago. Children ages 2 to 11 now spend an average of 111 hours, 47 minutes a month watching traditional television, according to Nielsen's Cross-Platform Report for the first quarter of 2014.

That is up from the average of 108 hours, 45 minutes a month children in that age group spent watching traditional television in 2009. "The bigger question to be asked was whether or not Nick is still able to produce new hits or whether they are broken," Mr. Wieser said.

After its ratings dropped, Nickelodeon overhauled its operations. The network researched the next generation of children, those born since 2005, who in addition to watching television grew up searching for funny cat videos on YouTube.

These youngsters love their families, want to save the world, are very well behaved, have few close friends but wide social circles and do not like bad language, meanness and bloody violence, the research showed, according to Ms. Zarghami. "Kids are looking for nuggets of funny," she said.

Nickelodeon is trying to figure out how to make them laugh. It started its animated shorts program with a focus on finding and grooming a new generation of creative talent to produce humorous content. Established creators act as mentors for the new talent, and the final products are developed to appear on the web, mobile and television. "Welcome to The Wayne" is one of the four digital-only series from the program being released this year, and more are in the works.

Just as "SpongeBob SquarePants," "iCarly" and "Dora the Explorer" defined Nickelodeon for a generation of children, network executives hope that this roster of digital characters will become as memorable to the next generation of viewers. "We are looking at new talent as diamonds in the rough, and we are polishing them up in this new system," said Russell Hicks, president of content development and production at Nickelodeon Group.

Nickelodeon also went to work on a new Nick.com, which had not been redesigned since the mid-1990s. The new site, unveiled last week, resembles a mobile app and features thousands of games and full-length television series for people with cable or satellite subscriptions. For the first time, it is offering digital-only series for all visitors, even those without a subscription. It also features the mobile app's famous Do Not Touch button, which children touch an average of 20 times a session to set off a silly animation, like a piece of pizza splatting against the computer screen.

"We have a stronger pipeline with more on deck for this new generation," Ms. Zarghami said.

It is unclear whether Nickelodeon's strategy is the right one. Its primary competitor, the Disney Channel, was first to introduce apps that streamed shows. But Disney Channel has taken a more cautious approach to overhauling its television offerings. While Nickelodeon has been experimenting with programs like "AwesomenessTV," a sketch comedy show stocked with YouTube personalities, the Disney Channel has remained focused on its signature brand of polished sitcoms.

Regardless, Nickelodeon still has its work cut out for it. Ratings are about flat this year, and traffic to Nickelodeon's desktop and mobile sites declined to 11 million unique United States visitors in June, down 30 percent from the same period last year, according to comScore.

And competition is increasing. Amazon, which carries Nickelodeon shows, is introducing three original children's series this summer on its Prime Instant Video service. Netflix, for its part, has announced plans for a lineup of original series for children.

"The competitive landscape is definitely bigger than it used to be," Ms. Zarghami said. "Now, more than before, the content really matters — not just how they get it."


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1n New Jersey, Workers’ Advocates Aim to Put Paid Sick Time on Ballot

By PATRICK McGEEHAN August 3, 2014

Frustrated in their efforts to make paid sick leave mandatory for businesses throughout New Jersey, workers' advocates are now pressing their campaign city by city, emboldened by laws recently passed in Newark and Jersey City, as well as in New York City.

A coalition of advocacy groups is pushing sympathetic officials in East Orange, Irvington, Montclair, Passaic, Paterson and Trenton to let their voters decide on the issue. The coalition, led by the New Jersey Working Families Alliance, faces a deadline on Tuesday to deliver enough signed petitions to get the question on the November ballot in those cities and towns.

On Monday, the City Council of East Orange, a suburb of Newark, is scheduled to discuss a proposed ordinance that would require most of the employers in that city to allow workers to start accruing some paid sick time. If passed, the ordinance would make the ballot question moot.

The coalition has also supported a sick-leave bill sponsored in New Jersey's Legislature by State Senator Loretta Weinberg, the Democratic majority leader, and Assemblywoman Pamela R. Lampitt, a Democrat from Camden County. The bill has not made much progress, however, and given businesses' longtime objections to the idea, it is unclear whether Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican, will support it.

Rather than waiting for state lawmakers to act, the coalition is pushing for local ordinances, with the one that Newark enacted this year as a model. Since June 1, workers in Newark, both full-time and part-time, have been earning one hour of paid sick time for every 30 hours they work. The amount of sick time they can accrue is capped at 40 hours a year for employees of businesses with 10 or more employees and at 24 hours for businesses with fewer than 10 employees. Employees can use sick time to care for themselves or to care for a sick family member, and cannot be punished for using it.

The New York City law, which took effect this year, requires up to 40 hours of paid sick leave at all businesses with at least five employees, and unpaid leave at smaller business.

If all six of the municipalities passed laws similar to Newark's, the number of workers in the state with the benefit could double to about 140,000 before the end of the year, said Analilla Mejia, executive director of the Working Families Party in New Jersey. She said the coalition had gathered thousands of signatures on the petitions.

"We are prepared to take all of them to ballots," Ms. Mejia said in an interview. But, she added, "We are pleasantly surprised by the level of enthusiasm and support and recognition that this is a good thing for residents in these municipalities that we are getting from the mayors and members of the councils."

The mayors of two of the cities, East Orange and Paterson, said last week that they endorsed the idea of allowing workers to earn some paid sick time and hoped that their councils would take action before Election Day in November.

Joey Torres, the mayor of Paterson, said he saw the matter as a "public health issue" because so many of the workers who do not get some paid sick time are employed in jobs that involve contact with the public, such as food services and day care centers.

"Forcing an employee to make a decision between not getting paid or coming into work sick means exposing the rest of the employees and maybe the customers to that illness," he said.

Lester E. Taylor III, the mayor of East Orange, which has about 65,000 residents, made a similar point, alluding to workers like those who care for his young children. "I know firsthand that if their teachers at the day care center are sick, that means that I get sick, too," he said.

Mr. Taylor and Mr. Torres said they had not yet heard any significant opposition to the idea of mandating paid sick time. But both said they were cognizant of the burden the mandate would put on the smallest members of the private sector: the local merchants and service providers.

Indeed, among the most vocal opponents to the expanding campaign for paid sick time have been owners of franchises of national restaurant chains, such as Dunkin' Donuts. Ed Shanahan, the executive director of DD Independent Franchise Owners, said he had not personally lobbied against the initiatives in each of the cities in New Jersey where they had come up, but he said he would if his organization, which represents owners of about 2,500 Dunkin' Donuts shops, could afford it.

Mr. Shanahan said the ordinances could effectively double the cost of an hour of labor by forcing employers to find substitutes for the workers who would be paid while claiming to be sick. As an example he cited a teenage worker "who is scheduled for a Saturday shift but their buddies are going to the Jersey Shore," so they would call in sick and go off to have fun.

"There would be plenty of frivolity that would be getting paid for," Mr. Shanahan said, though he added that "somebody could be legitimately sick on a Friday."

Correction: August 3, 2014

An earlier version of this article misstated the name of a coalition of advocacy groups seeking ballot measures on paid sick leave in New Jersey. It is the New Jersey Working Families Alliance, not the Working Families Party.

Related Coverage Deal Reached to Force Paid Sick Leave in New York City Mar 28, 2013 The Working Life: New York's Paid Sick Leave Law Quietly Takes Effect Apr 6, 2014 New York City Council Swiftly Passes Bill to Extend Paid Sick Days Feb 26, 2014 The Agenda: Paid Sick Leave Has Some Business Owners Feeling Ill Apr 29, 2013 Vital Signs: Safety: Paid Sick Leave May Reduce Work Injuries Aug 6, 2012 Paid Sick Leave Laws Generate Concern, but Not Much Pain Jul 3, 2013 Editorial: Working While Sick Aug 4, 2012 The Working Life: Despite Business Fears, Sick-Day Laws Like New York's Work Well Elsewhere Jan 26, 2014 Bill Requiring Sick Leave Is Approved in Jersey City Sep 26, 2013
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Banco Espírito Santo to Be Split Up in Rescue by Portugal

Banco Espírito Santo will be shut down, and its healthy businesses transferred to a new bank, as part of 4.9 billion euro rescue plan financed primarily by the Portuguese government. By JACK EWING and CHAD BRAY August 3, 2014

The troubled lender Banco Espírito Santo will be shut down, and its healthy businesses transferred to a new bank, as part of 4.9 billion euro rescue plan financed primarily by the Portuguese government, European and Portuguese officials said early on Monday.

While the Portuguese government will provide most of the money for the rescue in the form of a loan, the heaviest losses will be absorbed by Banco Espírito Santo shareholders and some creditors. The plan will serve as an early test of new European rules intended to make sure that investors, and not just taxpayers, most directly deal with the fallout when banks fail.

With total assets of €76.6 billion, or about $103 billion, at the end of March, Banco Espírito Santo is nowhere near large enough to rank among the eurozone's largest banks. Still, the rescue will be costly for a country that emerged from an international bailout only months ago.

Problems at Banco Espírito Santo, undone by its exposure to its struggling corporate parent, also raise questions about what other troubles may still lurk in the European banking system.

In another recent bank failure, Corporate Commercial Bank in Bulgaria closed on June 20 after a three-day run in which some $700 million — about a fifth of the bank's deposits — was withdrawn.

The announcement early on Monday came just days after the Bank of Portugal, the country's central bank, had offered assurances that Banco Espírito Santo could raise enough money from private investors to recover from a first-half loss of €3.58 billion.

On Monday the Bank of Portugal portrayed the rescue as being paid for by the country's bank resolution fund, which is bankrolled by financial institutions. The government will loan the fund €4.4 billion of the €4.9 billion cost of the bailout, however. Eventually, the new bank will be sold in an attempt to recover the taxpayer loan.

The European Commission, which approved the plan, said it complied with new rules intended to minimize the cost to taxpayers while preventing disruption to the financial system.

As part of the rescue plan, the bank's sound assets — including deposits and loans that are likely to be repaid — will be moved into a so-called bridge bank to be renamed Novo Banco, according to a statement released by Banco Espírito Santo.

The bank's problem assets will remain with the existing bank, which will be shut down over time. Shareholders in the old bank, as well as creditors who agreed to accept more risk, may well lose all of their money. That group includes the Espírito Santo Financial Group, one of the holding companies of the Espírito Santo family, which has been a dominant force in the country's economy for decades and is blamed for the bank's troubles. Crédit Agricole, one of France's biggest lenders, is also a major shareholder.

So-called senior creditors whose contracts gave them greater privileges will retain claims on the new bank and stand to recover at least a portion of their money.

Vitor Bento, an outsider favored by Portugal's central bank, was recently named the top executive at Banco Espírito Santo and will serve as the head of Novo Banco.

The Bank of Portugal said customers would be able to conduct transactions normally, and employees of the bank will be transferred to the new entity, which will retain the company logo.

"For our customers and staff only one thing has changed — their bank is now stronger and safer than it was before," Mr. Bento said in a statement. "The key uncertainties that have been hanging over the institution for some time have now been removed."

After Banco Espírito Santo reported a big loss, Portugal's central bank said it would push for legal action against directors involved in any fraudulent activities.

Regulators are investigating possible accounting fraud and abuse of privileged information by the Espírito Santo family. Portuguese and other authorities have been investigating potential accounting fraud and abuse of privileged information in Portugal, Luxembourg and other financial centers used by the Espírito Santo family, which has run the bank for generations. The family's interests span finance, property, energy and health care assets in Portugal, Brazil and other countries.

The bailout is a setback for Portugal just months after the country emerged from a €78 billion, three-year bailout financed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The country was one of those hit hardest in the eurozone debt crisis, but it won plaudits from its creditors for cleaning up its public finances and bringing its economy out of recession.

The near-collapse last week of Banco Espírito Santo, one of Portugal's largest lenders, unnerved investors, but it appears that Portugal will be able to afford the rescue.

Portugal has sufficient reserves, about €15 billion over all, according to a recent report by Moody's Investors Service, the credit rating agency. Portugal still has available just over half of the €12 billion that was allocated to rescue banks, as part of the €78 billion international bailout.

In fact, during the Portuguese crisis, Banco Espírito Santo was the only major listed bank not to ask for any rescue funding. The decision was seen at the time as a sign of solidity, but has more recently raised suspicions that the bank did not ask for help because it was "doing everything possible not to open their accounts," said Antonio Roldan Mones, an analyst at the Eurasia Group in London.

Banco Espírito Santo's €3.58 billion loss for the first six months of 2014 was the largest ever for a Portuguese bank.

The bank's stock has been under pressure since late May, after the disclosure that an audit by the Bank of Portugal found that Espírito Santo International was in "serious financial condition."

But its problems became far clearer in early July, after one of the family's companies failed to pay back a loan on schedule, in that way also revealing a convoluted corporate structure in which the bank was used by the Espírito Santo family to extend loans to prop up shaky industrial assets.

The European Commission was "closely monitoring" the situation and was in touch with the Portuguese authorities, a spokesman said on Sunday. A spokesman for the European Central Bank, which will assume overall responsibility for overseeing eurozone banks in November, declined to comment.

In July, Ricardo Espírito Santo Silva Salgado, the family patriarch and former head of Banco Espírito Santo, was arrested and ordered to post bail of €3 million as part of a money-laundering and tax evasion investigation.

His arrest came only days after he stepped down from the bank.

Banco Espírito Santo provides something of a preview of what may happen in October when the European Central Bank discloses the results of an exhaustive review of bank holdings in the eurozone. The review is intended to uncover precisely the kind of hidden problems that have undone Banco Espírito Santo.

The central bank review is expected to expose an unknown number of other banks with problem loans or other woes that they have failed to disclose to regulators or shareholders. There has been concern that the central bank's findings could destabilize the eurozone financial system. The European Union still lacks a comprehensive system for dealing with troubled banks, meaning countries must finance their own bailouts.

Raphael Minder contributed reporting from Tegernsee, Germany.


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Banco Espírito Santo of Portugal Appears Headed for a Bailout

By JACK EWING and CHAD BRAY August 3, 2014

The troubled lender Banco Espírito Santo appeared on Sunday to be headed for a bailout financed by Portuguese taxpayers, in a test of Portugal's resilience and the ability of the eurozone to absorb another banking crisis.

The Bank of Portugal, the country's central bank, was expected to announce a rescue just days after it had offered assurances that Banco Espírito Santo could raise enough money from private investors to recover from a first-half loss of 3.58 billion euros, or about $4.8 billion, announced last week.

As part of a plan expected to be announced late on Sunday, the Portuguese government would inject more than €4 billion into the bank, which would be split in two, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions. One unit would house deposits, loans that are likely to be repaid and other healthy assets. Banco Espírito Santo's problem loans and other liabilities would be sequestered in a separate bank.

Banco Espírito Santo shareholders would probably lose all their money under the plan, but some holders of the bank's debt would be assigned to the unit with the healthy assets, the person said, and stand a chance of recouping at least a portion of their investments. The largest shareholders include Espírito Santo Financial Group, one of the holding company's of the Espírito Santo family that has been a dominant force in the country's economy for decades, and Crédit Agricole, one of France's biggest lenders.

Portuguese and other authorities have been investigating potential accounting fraud and abuse of privileged information in Portugal, Luxembourg and other financial centers used by the Espírito Santo family, which has run the bank for generations. The family's interests span finance, property, energy and health care assets in Portugal, Brazil and other countries.

The bailout is a setback for Portugal just months after the country emerged from a €78 billion, three-year bailout financed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The country was one of those hit hardest in the eurozone debt crisis but won plaudits from its creditors for cleaning up its public finances and bringing its economy out of recession.

The near-collapse last week of Banco Espírito Santo, one of Portugal's largest lenders, unnerved investors, but it appears that Portugal will be able to afford the rescue.

The market interest rate, or yield, on Portuguese 10-year bonds rose only modestly on Friday, to 3.7 percent, amid speculation that the government would have to step in. The yield is far below rates of more than 15 percent seen in 2012, when there were serious doubts whether the eurozone would be able to survive.

Portugal has sufficient reserves, about €15 billion over all, according to a recent report by Moody's Investors Service, the credit rating agency. Portugal still has available just over half of the €12 billion that was allocated to rescue banks, as part of the €78 billion international bailout.

In fact, during the Portuguese crisis, Banco Espírito Santo was the only major listed bank not to ask for any rescue funding. The decision was seen at the time as a sign of solidity, but has more recently raised suspicions that the bank did not ask for help because it was "doing everything possible not to open their accounts," said Antonio Roldan Mones, an analyst at the Eurasia Group in London.

Banco Espírito Santo's €3.58 billion loss for the first six months of 2014 was the largest ever for a Portuguese bank.

As part of the loss, the bank was forced to set aside €4.25 billion for potential losses, attributed primarily to its exposure to its corporate parent, Espírito Santo International, which missed payments on some debt in July, and other parts of the Espírito Santo group.

The bank's stock has been under pressure since late May, after the disclosure that an audit by the Bank of Portugal found that Espírito Santo International was in "serious financial condition."

But its problems became far clearer in early July, after one of the family's companies failed to pay back a loan on schedule, in that way also revealing a convoluted corporate structure in which the bank was used by the Espírito Santo family to extend loans to prop up shaky industrial assets.

Banco Espírito Santo and the Bank of Portugal, the country's central bank, did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Sunday night.

The European Commission was "closely monitoring" the situation and was in touch with the Portuguese authorities, a spokesman said on Sunday. A spokesman for the European Central Bank, which will assume overall responsibility for overseeing eurozone banks in November, declined to comment.

Concerns about the bank unnerved European investors in mid-July, briefly forcing the postponement of several planned initial public offerings and debt deals. The PSI-20, the main stock index that tracks stocks traded in Lisbon, closed down 3 percent on Friday, when trading in the bank's shares was suspended. The index is off 16.6 percent since June 1.

In July, Ricardo Espírito Santo Silva Salgado, the family patriarch and former head of Banco Espírito Santo, was arrested and ordered to post bail of €3 million as part of a money-laundering and tax evasion investigation.

His arrest came only days after he stepped down from the bank. He was succeeded by Vítor Bento, an outsider favored by Portugal's central bank.

Last week, the bank said that to cover possible losses on credits granted without proper internal clearance, it needed to raise at least €856 million. Banco Espírito Santo said it would "ensure the bank is reimbursed for losses caused as a result of any potential illegal behavior."

In the first half of the year, the bank was also forced to take a provision to write-off interest on loans by its subsidiary in oil-rich Angola. The Angolan unit handed out loans equivalent to 220 percent of its deposits, leading the Angolan government to offer €4.2 billion in guarantees last December.

Last week, before Banco Espírito Santo reported its results, the Bank of Portugal said it was confident that private money, rather than a public rescue, would cover any shortfall. At the time, Banco Espírito Santo's loss was expected to be about €3 billion.

Banco Espírito Santo provides something of a preview of what may happen in October when the European Central Bank discloses the results of an exhaustive review of bank holdings in the eurozone. The review is intended to uncover precisely the kind of hidden problems that have undone Banco Espírito Santo.

The central bank review is expected to expose an unknown number of other banks with problem loans or other woes that they have failed to disclose to regulators or shareholders. There has been concern that the central bank's findings could destabilize the eurozone financial system. The European Union still lacks a comprehensive system for dealing with troubled banks, meaning countries must finance their own bailouts.

Chad Bray contributed reporting from London, and Raphael Minder contributed reporting from Tegernsee, Germany.


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Sabtu, 02 Agustus 2014

How Facebook Sold You Krill 0il

Carla Echevarria, a creative strategist for Facebook, at a "publishing garage" held to help plan an advertising initiative for a client, Reckitt Benckiser. By VINDU GOEL August 2, 2014

Joao Rodrigues had been listening and holding his tongue. For a day and a half, brand managers, ad agency creative types and Facebook strategists had gathered in airy conference rooms and around cafeteria tables in Facebook's Madison Avenue offices, filling up whiteboards and scratch pads with one heartfelt or clever tagline after another.

The idea was to come up with a big, sweeping campaign to market MegaRed, a premium alternative to fish oil pills, to users of the social network. Each ad had to be so compelling that it would get people to stop scrolling through their news feeds — what Facebook calls a thumbstopper.

But from where Mr. Rodrigues sat, as the guy who would write the checks for the proposed campaign, the Facebook people seemed to be missing an essential point.

The advantage of advertising on the world's largest social network was that it could do something television ads could not: Using sophisticated analytics, it could help him find people who were already buying fish oil or other products that suggested they were concerned about the health of their hearts, and perhaps persuade them to switch to his brand.

Sticky notes kept track of different ideas.

At the meeting, which Facebook calls a publishing garage, the company's ad strategists were saying they wanted him to spend money to show ads to every American woman 45 and older on Facebook — as many as 32 million people.

Finally, with some exasperation, Mr. Rodrigues — the marketing director for vitamins, minerals and supplements at Reckitt Benckiser, the company that owns MegaRed — blurted out what he'd been thinking. For that kind of broad blitz, he said, "I can go to television at a quarter the price."

Ever since it began selling ads 10 years ago, Facebook has been combating doubts about its value to marketers. Search engines like Google offer advertisers a direct link to people seeking out particular products, while television remains the dominant way to reach a mass audience. Now, Facebook claims, it can provide the best of both.

With its trove of knowledge about the likes, histories and social connections of its 1.3 billion users worldwide, Facebook executives argue, it can help advertisers reach exactly the right audience and measure the impact of their ads — while also, like TV, conveying a broad brand message. Facebook, which made $1.5 billion in profit on $7.9 billion in revenue last year, sees particular value in promoting its TV-like qualities, given that advertisers spend $200 billion a year on that medium.

Joao Rodrigues, left; Laurent Faracci, standing; and Oriane Kowalczyk of Reckitt Benckiser discussed strategies during a Facebook publishing garage.

"We want to hold ourselves accountable for delivering results," said Caroline Everson, Facebook's vice president for global marketing solutions, in a recent interview. "Not smoke and mirrors, maybe it works, maybe it doesn't."

John Swift, who heads North American media buying for Omnicom Media Group, one of the world's largest purchasers of advertising, said that Facebook won't replace TV anytime soon, but it offers a flexible canvas to reach consumers. "You're not going to Facebook to watch a show," he said. "But Facebook offers the unique combination that you don't really see in a lot of digital platforms of amazing scale as well as a very personal engagement opportunity."

Both Facebook and marketers have strong reason to explore its potential.

Consumer brands, from the beer giant Budweiser to start-ups like the clothier Trunk Club, want to reach people where they are spending their time. More and more, that place is Facebook. In June, the social network accounted for about one of every six minutes that Americans spent online, and one of every five minutes on mobile phones, according to comScore, a research company. Mothers, the typical household's chief buyer of consumer products, are among the most dedicated users, spending nearly four times as many minutes on Facebook as other people.

The MegaRed ads included emotional appeals.

Marketers are starting to become believers in the value of Facebook, shifting more of their budgets to the service from other media channels, especially print and direct mail. The company just reported unexpectedly strong growth in revenue and profits for the second quarter, prompting investors to send its stock to record highs.

Still, Facebook has changed its pitch and the products it offers advertisers so often that many marketing executives are wary. A few years ago, the company was telling brands to increase the number of people following their pages. Now it says fans are largely irrelevant. Until late last year, it was promoting the power of ads in which people's likes and comments about a brand were turned into endorsements sent to their friends. After legions of user complaints — and a class-action lawsuit — Facebook switched gears again. Now it boasts about its ability to pinpoint potential customers on their cellphones and Facebook.com based on its data about them. The company's newest offering uses those profiles to serve targeted ads inside other companies' mobile apps. Facebook is also pushing new video ads that would compete with TV for marketing big events, like movie openings.

Given the social network's constantly changing messages, it was no wonder Mr. Rodrigues was annoyed. He had come to Facebook for its promise of precise ad targeting.

"We go against fish oil users," he declared at the brainstorming meeting, meaning he wanted the ads to appear on the news feeds of those users. "We go against people who have heart concerns." Several other R.B. managers chimed in their support.

The ads included descriptions of the products and reached 18.1 million women aged 45 and up on Facebook.

Brett Prescott, the Facebook advertising strategist leading the two-day session, was used to this kind of reaction and came back with a well-honed response. Yes, Facebook looked more expensive than TV. But advertising on Facebook was like firing a shotgun. "And you are firing that buckshot knowing where every splinter of that bullet is landing," he said.

Laurent Faracci, R.B.'s chief marketing officer for the United States and Mr. Rodrigues's boss, was also at the publishing garage. He was willing to give Mr. Prescott's approach a chance.

Making a Thumbstopper

Unlike some products that have hit it big on Facebook, such as Oreo cookies and the Wendy's pretzel bacon cheeseburger, MegaRed krill oil isn't an easy product to "like" or even understand, which makes selling it all the more difficult.

Brett Prescott, a Facebook advertising strategist, ran the two-day session.

MegaRed is essentially a premium variation of fish oil — a nutritional supplement purchased by roughly one in six American households and swallowed in the belief that it will lead to a healthier heart. "Taking fish oil is not a pleasant experience," Mr. Faracci said. "It's a huge pill and a fishy aftertaste. As soon as you take it, there's a burp back."

MegaRed's capsule is smaller, and the company claims its oil is more quickly absorbed by the body. It also comes from Antarctic krill, a tiny crustacean, instead of from larger fish that can accumulate toxins in their bodies.

But the pills are expensive, costing about $57 for a year's supply, more than double the $25 price of generic fish oil. Big retailers like Walgreen and Costco have also come out with their own brands of krill oil that undercut MegaRed's prices.

Complicating the sales pitch is conflicting science. The National Institutes of Health say there is some evidence that fish oil can reduce high triglycerides, which are one indicator of high cholesterol and may be a risk factor for heart disease and stroke. But a new analysis of past studies of fish oil by researchers from the University of Auckland in New Zealand, published online in December by JAMA Internal Medicine, found little proof of health benefits. And some research has suggested that high consumption can actually be harmful.

Indeed, R.B.'s lawyers won't let its marketers claim that MegaRed pills actually lead to a healthier heart. They can only suggest it with scientific-sounding language like "supports three markers of heart health": triglycerides, C-reactive proteins and the omega-3 index.

Not exactly a thumbstopper.

R.B., a British company that owns big consumer brands like Lysol cleaners and Durex condoms, bought MegaRed in December 2012 as part of its $1.4 billion acquisition of Schiff Nutrition. It was convinced it could increase sales by brightening the stodgy marketing of MegaRed and other Schiff brands like Move Free and Airborne.

Mr. Faracci discovered Facebook's value in 2012, when he oversaw a campaign for Lysol Power & Free, a version of the cleaning solution with fewer harsh chemicals. The campaign, aimed at mothers, emphasized the health benefits of using a gentler product and generated twice as much in sales as it cost. According to measurements from Nielsen, it made the people who saw it 8 percent more likely to consider buying the product.

Mr. Faracci was convinced that MegaRed could pluck the heartstrings of Facebook users in a similar way.

The goal of the two-day "garage" last August, which Mr. Faracci allowed me to attend, was to come up with specific MegaRed ads that would be compelling enough to grab the attention of a mother or grandmother scanning her Facebook feed on her phone while in line at the supermarket — and eventually, prompt her to buy the pills.

MegaRed had 8 percent of the dollar value of the "heart health" market, which includes fish oil, according to R.B.'s analysis of IRI shopper data through Sept. 8, 2013. But the company's research showed people didn't know much about the brand. Once they learned about it through Facebook, Mr. Faracci believed, many of them would switch.

Facebook, which has held around 200 of these sessions with more than 100 companies over the last few years, hosted the meeting in Midtown Manhattan (it has since moved to bigger quarters near Astor Place). The garage brought together about 20 people from R.B., Facebook and the brand's advertising agencies, Karlen Williams Graybill and MRY.

Before the session began, R.B. and its agencies had settled on a theme: "What does your heart beat for?" The idea was that taking a daily MegaRed would keep your heart going so you could do what was important to you.

MegaRed's previous Facebook ads drew about one "like" or other interaction for every 260 people who saw them. The company wanted to do a lot better.

The people in the room began tossing around ideas. An image of a sine wave with the sound of a heart beating? Love stories? Music from the band Heart?

No, too literal.

"The things we share on Facebook are stories of the heart," said Eric Schnabel, a creative strategist from Facebook's Chicago office who had worked on marketing other products that made health claims, like the cereal Special K.

The team started free-associating ideas for poignant emotional moments. A son's wedding. Playing tennis every week. Caring for a Harley. Going to a jazz festival. Soon the whiteboard was covered with sticky notes.

Next they stepped into the shoes of two model customers, both female, from two different generations, to help the marketers tailor their pitches.

Agnes was a 65-year-old baby boomer. The team started filling out her profile. She regularly went to yoga and Zumba classes and played golf. She traveled a lot, heading to Vermont for a three-day weekend. She liked to pull out pictures of her grandchildren. She was Facebook friends with her grown-up nephews but her own son had unfriended her.

Linda, a Gen X-er, was 50. She aspired to raise healthy kids, and was worried about her parents' health. Perhaps she was divorced, trying Match.com for online dating.

Mr. Schnabel laid out a few guidelines. Visuals count. "Great words with an image attached to them are the purest form of expression," he said.

Story lines that stretch across multiple ads, spread out over days or weeks, could also be very effective. "We try to make them more like 'Law and Order' than 'Game of Thrones,' " Mr. Schnabel said. "You don't need to see every episode in order for it to make sense."

But don't overdo it, he warned. Ads that pop up too frequently feel like spam. Facebook itself generally aims to show one ad for every 20 items in a person's news feed, although users who like or comment frequently on ads might see more.

Discussing Agnes, the fictional grandmother, the group focused on passions she never had time to pursue. One ad could show a couple her age wearing backpacks in front of the Eiffel Tower. Another, learning to cook the perfect meatball in Italy.

A home run would be a message that people liked enough to share with their friends and family — giving a free boost to the campaign.

The most thumbstopping idea of the day came from Roger Lu, a Facebook manager who primarily works on data and ad targeting: A child's crayon drawing of his grandfather pulling a quarter from his head, with the caption: "Thank you for finding money in my ear, Grandpa."

"It's much more emotional and much more unexpected," said Mr. Schnabel approvingly.

Selecting the Targets

Figuring out the ad content was the fun part. The tension between Facebook and R.B. emerged when it came time to figure out how MegaRed should spend its money.

Modern data collection practices have made it remarkably easy to locate individuals based on what they tend to buy. Online shopping carts and store checkout scanners record purchases, and data brokers like Datalogix gather information from loyalty cards, customer email addresses and other sources to build a profile based on their past purchases.

Facebook and its competitors can match that offline data to their own dossiers on users to help marketers target their pitches and evaluate the effectiveness of their campaigns. Although the matching has Big Brother overtones, Facebook says it takes pains to protect user privacy, using a complex process to make individual profiles anonymous before matching them.

At the meeting, Mr. Rodrigues argued that MegaRed's money would be best spent going after a narrow group of consumers. Tapping into Datalogix's database of retail purchases, MegaRed wanted to find not just current fish oil users but other people worried about their hearts. Called "lookalikes," they are signaled by their purchases of products like canned salmon, oatmeal, Cheerios, health supplements, aspirin and blood pressure monitors, as well as by liking Facebook pages on heart-related topics.

The Facebook folks countered that such specific targeting would be very expensive. Under Facebook's auction system, advertisers compete for limited slots in the users' news feeds; the more targeted the pitch, the higher the cost for reaching each 1,000 people. With only a small pool of targets, R.B. would be competing with other brands that wanted to reach those same people, forcing it to pay more to be the advertiser that won the slot.

Also, Mr. Prescott argued, the emotional campaign for MegaRed might very well draw in people whose potential interest in fish oil was not readily apparent. MegaRed should show ads to every American woman 45 and older and see who was interested in each one, then place those ads in the feeds of people in the same demographic buckets, he said.

Kyle Benedetti, who at the time was director of sales for SocialCode, an ad management platform working with R.B. and Facebook, said, "We can tell you within the first 15 minutes of a post whether it's a good post or a bad post."

In Mr. Faracci's experience, that ability to shift a Facebook campaign quickly based on immediate feedback was the platform's biggest strength.

Mr. Rodrigues was more skeptical. "We don't know whether Facebook is the right tool," he said.

"Let us take these inputs and see how big these audiences are," Mr. Schnabel urged. If the broad-brush approach wasn't working, the data should show that pretty quickly.

Crunching the Numbers

Over the next few months, the creative team produced dozens of specific ads and began putting them into the news feeds of both fish oil users and the broader audience.

In mid-November, shortly after the eight-week marketing campaign had begun, nearly a dozen members of the original team reassembled for a progress report.

One of the first ads targeted at the broad group — the photo of a boy and his grandfather, "being there to push him in the right direction" for his first bike ride — had already drawn more than 18,000 likes and nearly 600 comments.

"My heart beats when my grandkids r happy my 6 year old just learned how to ride his bike n he did it on the 3rd try," wrote Marybeth Ortiz, a housecleaner from Nevada, whose comment was highlighted in the team's review (Turns out, though, she never bought any MegaRed.)

Another ad, a scene of ice and snow promoting MegaRed's Antarctic roots and aimed at heavy vitamin shoppers, had fallen flat, as had some ads aimed at fish oil users.

"I have found that the MegaRed smells and taste WORSE than the generic fish oil capsules!!" Carolyn Davis, a Facebook user in Tennessee, wrote in response to an ad about krill oil's claimed lack of aftertaste. "It turns my stomach to even open the cabinet I store it in!! As soon as this bottle is gone I will never buy it again!!"

"It's O.K. that things don't work," Mr. Faracci said at the end of the review. "It's much cheaper than using market research."

Still, R.B.'s marketers are sticklers for measurement, and the final exam for Facebook would be how the ads did on several crucial performance indicators.

When the campaign was completed at the end of December, it was clear that it had failed on one goal: it had fallen well short of the 100,000 fans MegaRed wanted to add to its Facebook page.

But how Facebook did on the most important measurements — the number of people who saw the ads and the effect on their purchases of MegaRed — would take several more months to assess, requiring Nielsen surveys of people who saw the ads and an analysis by Datalogix of MegaRed purchases by Facebook users in the supermarket.

In April, the results finally came in.

During the eight-week campaign, 18.1 million women aged 45 and up saw at least one ad, according to Nielsen's research. That was 56 percent of the target audience. The number who said they were now more likely to buy MegaRed rose by two percentage points.

About one out of every 84 Facebook users who saw the ads liked, commented on or shared them — triple the rate of engagement with MegaRed's previous ads. That greatly increased the chances that their friends on Facebook would also see the messages.

On the most crucial measure — sales of krill oil — the campaign generated about twice as much revenue as R.B. spent on the ads, according to an analysis by Datalogix. That was better than R.B.'s historical return from TV ads, which the company measures once every year or two.

MegaRed also gained more than a percentage point of market share, with 9.2 percent of the dollar value of the heart-health market, based on R.B.'s analysis of IRI shopper data through Feb. 23. R.B. was also running TV ads, handing out samples and doing in-store marketing at the same time, but the company says the Facebook campaign contributed to the gains.

The campaign's performance turned Mr. Rodrigues into a Facebook fan, and MegaRed is now running video ads on the social network.

"We need to be where the consumer is," he said in a recent interview. "And if on top of that, I get a bigger return on my investment, that's even better."

Still, television will continue to get most of the marketing budget, both for MegaRed and for other R.B. brands. "We're never going to stop TV," Mr. Faracci said. "It has a massive role to play. It is a primary source of entertainment. It has good economics."

But Facebook has established itself as a powerful complement, he said, sometimes extending the reach of a campaign to millions of people who never saw it on television.

R.B., which has gone through about 10 publishing garages with Facebook, is so pleased that it is escalating its global commitment to the platform. It plans to announce Monday that it will spend at least $100 million on Facebook over the next few years as part of a deeper partnership between the two companies.

"Facebook is a fantastic tool for doing personalized marketing at scale," said Heather Allen, who oversees all of R.B.'s marketing efforts worldwide. "This will be a successful relationship with us if it really drives business results."

Facebook has committed an entire team, headed by Mr. Prescott, to work on R.B. campaigns around the world, including Britain, Italy, Brazil, India and Australia. "We're putting skin in the game with them," he said.

With legions of other companies yet to win over, Facebook is expanding its publishing garage program internationally and offering other creative consulting services to big brands and ad agencies. "There's no question that in order to work with the world's largest marketers, you have to invest resources to do that," said Ms. Everson of Facebook.

However, Facebook has a million and half advertisers, most of them small. Eventually, she hopes, her company can find ways to teach all of them how to turn their ads into thumbstoppers.

"That's a long-term journey," she said. "That's the North Star that we're trying to get to."


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The New Health Care: Critics Raise Concerns About Sovaldi

The New Health Care High Cure Rate, but Huge Cost, for Hepatitis C Pill Sovaldi costs $1,000 a pill, a concern to critics and insurers. It cures around 90 percent of patients who take it. By MARGOT SANGER-KATZ August 2, 2014

A new drug for the liver disease hepatitis C is scaring people. Not because the drug is dangerous — it's generally heralded as a genuine medical breakthrough — but because it costs $1,000 a pill and about $84,000 for a typical person's total treatment.

A Washington advocacy effort has sprung up overnight, largely devoted to objecting to the cost of this one medication, Sovaldi. Members of Congress have started a joint investigation into how its maker, Gilead Sciences, settled on its price.

"Clearly, $1,000 a pill strikes people as completely unreasonable," said John Rother, president of the National Coalition on Health Care, an advocacy group that has been raising an outcry about the drug's price as "unsustainable." Gilead "stepped in it when they decided to go for that cost per pill, because people can't imagine why that could be justified."

But maybe we are looking at the costs of Sovaldi in the wrong way. One reason it is causing such angst among insurers and state Medicaid officials is that treatment costs are coming all at once.

Toyonnia Hodges at Central City Concern's clinic in Portland, Ore. She recently learned she had hepatitis C, contracted from a blood transfusion.

First of all, there is pent-up demand. There are a lot of people with hepatitis C — an estimated 3.2 million in the United States — many of whom have been waiting for a good treatment. Second, unlike drugs for most chronic diseases, like diabetes or H.I.V./AIDS, for which treatment continues over many years, Sovaldi can cure most patients' hepatitis in just a few weeks, with the bill soon to follow. The lifetime cost of treating someone with an H.I.V. infection is around $380,000, according to estimates from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but the annual bill is much smaller.

Think about AIDS treatment as paying a mortgage. Sovaldi is like buying a house with cash.

The United States health insurance system works better for costs that are spread out and predictable. People change insurance frequently, discouraging insurers from making a big investment now that might pay off later. That does not mean that our health care system is not expensive — it is — but we are more used to costs that pile up slowly over time. Expensive one-time treatments like Sovaldi can be a shock to the system.

Hepatitis C slowly destroys the liver. Over decades, many infected people will end up with liver damage and complications, including joint pain and kidney disease, while a smaller number will get cirrhosis or liver cancer, and a tiny fraction will end up needing liver transplants. People used to get the virus from blood transfusions; now, it is contracted mostly by intravenous drug users who share needles.

Until now, doctors would mostly treat hepatitis C patients' symptoms. Some drugs attacked the virus itself, but they did not work very well. And most had side effects, including fever, depression and anemia, that about half the patients were not healthy enough to tolerate.

Those drugs were also expensive — the most effective drug cocktail before Sovaldi cost about $70,000 — but because few patients chose them, the price tag did not cause a big reaction. Sovaldi is different. Patients want this drug, with its high success rate and smaller list of side effects. That means a big financial shock to the health care system all at once.

"With a product like Sovaldi, it's a new price to the system," said Gregg H. Alton, Gilead's executive vice president for corporate and medical affairs. He said the company priced the drug to be competitive with existing therapies, adding, "It's a new cost they weren't paying for before."

The accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers estimated that this single drug could bump up employer insurance premiums by half a percentage point next year. Researchers at the Kaiser Family Foundation, a health care research group, estimate that it could increase premiums for Medicare's drug benefit program by 3 to 8 percent next year, even if only a fraction of eligible seniors were to seek the treatment.

Insurer-sponsored studies are estimating even higher costs. Express Scripts, a company that manages drug benefits for insurers, prepared a worst-case situation: It said that states alone could be on the hook for up to $55 billion if every Medicaid patient or state prisoner with the disease was treated.

"We think a perfect storm is arising out there," said Dr. Steve Miller, a senior vice president and the chief medical officer at Express Scripts, who helped prepare its estimates.

The drug, which came on the market last year, has been a bona fide blockbuster for Gilead, which earned $3.48 billion in sales of Sovaldi in the last quarter alone. That puts it ahead of nearly every new drug introduction in history and in striking distance of the record for annual drug sales: the $12.9 billion for Pfizer's Lipitor in 2006.

America's Health Insurance Plans, the health insurance industry group, has been intensely focused on the drug's price. A new advocacy group, the Campaign for Sustainable Rx Pricing, begun by the National Coalition on Health Care with significant funding from the insurance industry, is sponsoring events and meeting with members of Congress to complain about Sovaldi's pricing.

In a rare bipartisan collaboration, Senators Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon, who is chairman of the Finance Committee, and Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa, a committee member, have started a joint investigation, asking the drug company to answer questions about how it determined Sovaldi's price. They unearthed documents showing that the pharmaceutical company Pharmasset, which originally developed the drug and was acquired by Gilead in 2011, had planned to sell it for $36,000 per course of treatment.

By law, state Medicaid programs, which insure poor and disabled residents, are legally required to cover any drugs that are approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Medicaid gets a mandatory discount of at least 23 percent on drugs. But many states, terrified about the budgetary impact of Sovaldi, are testing strategies to limit access. Oregon, which has a special legal waiver from the usual rules, has said it would give it only to Medicaid beneficiaries with advanced liver disease. Illinois announced similar restrictions last week.

Research on the cost-effectiveness of Sovaldi is still in the early stages, but it appears that use of the drug has the potential to actually save money over the long run. Data from the C.D.C. suggest that more than 60 percent of people with hepatitis C will end up with chronic liver disease — and as many as 20 percent will end up with cirrhosis. Treating those diseases is costly. A liver transplant, the most expensive option for the small group of patients with end-stage disease, costs nearly $600,000.

Because the drug cures around 90 percent of patients who take it, public health researchers believe it has the potential to reduce the spread of the disease to others, eliminating the future costs of treating their disease and any complications.

But in America's health care financing system, people tend to change commercial insurance whenever they change jobs, lose Medicaid coverage when financial circumstances change, or leave the commercial market altogether when they become eligible for Medicare at age 65. That means one company will be stuck footing the big bill, and another will probably reap the benefits of a healthy liver 20 years later.

"If it is cost-effective from a societal standpoint, it is not necessarily going to be cost-effective from a health plan standpoint," said Dan Mendelson, chief executive of Avalere Health, a health care consulting company. "I think some of the friction here results because the societal value is not reflected in the health plan operations."

State Medicaid programs are particularly sensitive to annual cost increases. Medicaid coverage is paid for, in part, out of state budgets, which have to be balanced every year. A disproportionate number of infected people rely on it for insurance, because the population most at risk — intravenous drug users — tends to be poor.

Matt Salo, executive director of the National Association of Medicaid Directors, which represents state Medicaid officials, said his members have been floored by estimates that the drug could drive up costs by 10 or 15 percent. They worry about the short-term budgetary strain, and about the longer-term political consequences.

"From a realistic perspective, when a Medicaid budget skyrockets like that, you aren't going to hear from the U.S. taxpayer, 'Thank goodness, Medicaid was here to solve this public health crisis,' " Mr. Salo said. "They're going to say, 'It's another runaway government program.' "

But for all the panic, the crisis may soon wane. New, effective drugs are about to enter the market to compete with Sovaldi, offering other options with high cure rates and low side effects. And a more competitive market is likely to drive down the drug's price, once payers can choose to cover only the drug that is the best deal.

The pent-up demand of patients who have been waiting for a cure will work itself out over the next few years. The PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates show big costs for treating hepatitis C over the next two years, then a sharp decline as the untreated population dwindles.

The Upshot provides news, analysis and graphics about politics, policy and everyday life. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter.


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